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New Research Predicts The Last Year People Smoke Cigarettes Here New Research Predicts The Last Year People Smoke Cigarettes Here

The report concluded England’s final cigarette will likely be smoked in the city of Derby in the year 2050.

Smoking continues to be the leading cause of preventable death and disease around the globe, making having effective quit aids vital. While most countries support traditional nicotine replacement therapies, such as patches and gum, few have been willing to incorporate vaping as readily as England has. While some criticized the move at the time, now few could argue that acceptance of vaping hasn’t been a positive move for England. In fact, a new study predicted England’s final cigarette would be smoked somewhere in the city of Derby in 2050.

They’ve already got a fantastic head start, with the smoking rate having recently dropped to around 15%, the lowest number since it started being tracked. Even more impressively, all this progress happened in just the last few decades, as right around one-third of people smoked in England in 1990. Regardless, this latest report shows once again why Great Britain is the world leader when it comes to properly handling vaping.

The New Report

The report was conducted by Frontier Economics, England based economic consulting and research firm. They wanted to estimate the year smoking would end for good in different cities around the country. The research was commissioned by none other than Philip Morris International, which drew some criticism at first. While it’s fair to note the potential bias of PMI getting involved in this type of research, in this case, many feel it’s more trustworthy than usual, given the negative impact on Big Tobacco. Likely the most exciting finding was that with current trends, the 7.4 million smokers in England would drop to zero in just thirty years. The last city to kick the habit is said to be Derby in 2050, but the report says a lot more is coming sooner.

According to economic, employment, health, and education data, Bristol will be the first major city to eliminate smoking entirely by the year 2024. York, Berks, and Wokingham will follow suit in 2026, with several more cities set to get rid of smoking by the end of next decade. While the news is fantastic for everyone, it’s even better for the vaping industry, who was given a large share of the credit. England’s public health agency, PHE, even said: “There is an opportunity to further reduce the harms caused by tobacco by encouraging more smokers to try vaping.”

In Support Of Vaping

Some people still seem unsure about what, if anything, vaping has to offer smokers. That’s one of how England is best at being a world leader in vaping rights. Public Health England was the first to publish a comprehensive report which concluded vaping is at least 95% safer than smoking. When that report was released back in 2015, it made huge waves, but these days we get that sort of result often. Just a few months back researchers found there are 93% more toxicants in cigarette smoke than in e-liquid vapor. But perhaps the most compelling piece of evidence for the value of vaping is the report in the Journal of Aerosol Sciences which concluded the excess lifetime cancer risk of a smoker is about 57,000 times higher than a vaper with a similar predisposition.

It’s not just harm reduction either. We have research on over 60,000 teens by UK based Action on Smoking and Health which found only between 0.1% and 0.5% of non-smoking teens are starting to vape regularly. This means even less must be ending up smokers because of vaping. It’s also worth noting, especially in this story, that researchers have found not only is vaping an effective smoking cessation tool, but it’s actually the most likely to lead to a successful quit attempt.


England provides the blueprint for how to handle vaping regulations. Not only are vapers free to do as they please there, but they’ve been able to harness the harm reduction and smoking cessation value to incredible results. They’ve already been able to reach all-time low smoking rates thanks to the power of vaping, and now it seems e-cigarettes will play a significant role at the end of smoking once and for all. So while lots of other places are working to make access to vaping harder, they should be taking a note from England and support them for their incredible benefits.

Do you think smoking will be gone in England by 2050? What’s the most crucial part of vaping? How should we support vaping to those around us? Let us know what you think in the comments, and don’t forget to check back here or join our Facebook and Twitter communities for more news and articles.

Dustin Erickson

Dustin Erickson - ECR.net Editor

Dustin can lay claim as one the first e-cigarette reviewers on the internet. Back in the summer of 2009 he set out on a mission to spread the word about e-cigs with this very site. Nearly 2.5 Million visitors, 1,700 Reviews collected and 5 years later, he’s still as passionate as ever and one of the leading Vaping advocates online.